part 1 of 4
There were 279 MW installed in Q1 2024, Up 1% from Q1 2023
Down 32% from Q4 2023.
Note on market segmentation: Community solar projects are part of formal programs where multiple residential and non-residential customers can subscribe to the power produced by a local solar project and receive credits on their utility bills.
The proposed decision on California community solar suppresses long-term national market growth.
Community solar installations remained relatively flat year-over-year in Q1 2024, resulting in 279 MW of new capacity. Installed capacity in New York grew 17% year-over-year in Q1 2024, making up 46% of national installed capacity. Additionally, while first-quarter growth in Illinois, Colorado, and Virginia supported national installations, other state markets are starting slowly. We expect the national market to grow 4% in 2024, exceeding 1.3 GW of annual capacity. Mature state markets will drive most of this year’s capacity, but we also anticipate momentum will build in newer markets such as Delaware and Virginia.
We’ve made significant downward adjustments to our five-year forecast due to the recent policy updates in California. In March 2024, the CPUC issued a proposed decision on A.B. 2316, siding with utility arguments and against the widely backed Net Value Billing Tariff (NVBT) proposal. As a result, our five-year outlook for California decreased from more than 1.5 GW to just over 200 MW, an 87% decline. The massive market potential of the NVBT program proposal was anticipated to bolster long-term national market growth. However, the CPUC voted to confirm a slightly modified proposed decision on May 30th, resulting in a 14% reduction in our 2024-2028 outlook compared to last quarter.
Overall, we expect the national community solar market to grow at an average rate of 5% annually through 2026 and then contract by 11% on average through 2029. Importantly, our five-year outlook includes only state markets with programs currently in place and does not include states with proposed program legislation. Additionally, we continue to monitor the impact of Solar for All funding, awards for which were announced in April. Several state agencies in both existing and potential state markets proposed using funds for community solar and bill savings for community solar subscribers, potentially supporting new development and long-term growth.
Reprinted from SEIAs report and edited by Robert Benedict
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